The University of Utah Utes enter Saturday’s showdown against the Kansas State University Wildcats as 17.5-point favorites — a massive line that tests not just their offense, but their discipline. The game, set for 4:00 p.m. ET on November 22, 2025, at an undetermined venue, has sparked fierce debate among analysts: Can a team this dominant actually cover a spread this wide? Or will Kansas State’s opportunistic defense, which has forced 24 turnovers this season, pull off one of the season’s biggest upsets?
The Line Movement Tells a Story
When the odds first dropped, Utah was a 17-point favorite with a 52.5-point total. Now? The spread has ballooned to -17.5, and the over/under has dipped to 51.5. That’s not just a tweak — it’s a signal. Betting markets are reacting to Utah’s explosive offense, which has averaged 43.2 points per game over their last five contests. Meanwhile, Kansas State’s recent momentum — a 14-6 win over Oklahoma State, three wins in their last five — hasn’t been enough to move the needle. The market sees the Wildcats as a trap team: tough, scrappy, but not built to hang with a top-15 offense for four quarters.
Key Players on Both Sides
For Utah, Devon Dampier is the engine. The quarterback has thrown for 17 touchdowns with just five interceptions, but his real weapon is his legs — 543 rushing yards this season make him a nightmare for defenses trying to contain both the pass and run. Behind him, Wayshawn Parker has churned out 736 rushing yards, giving Utah one of the most balanced ground games in the Big 12. Wide receiver Ryan Davis has been the consistent target, hauling in 659 yards.
Kansas State counters with a different kind of threat. Quarterback Avery Johnson has completed 182 of 301 passes for 17 touchdowns, but his 369 rushing yards show he’s more than a pocket passer. Running back Joe Jackson adds 476 yards on the ground, while receiver Jayce Brown has been the deep threat with 712 receiving yards. But the real story? Their defense. With 24 takeaways this season — five in their last game alone — they’re among the nation’s most disruptive units. That’s why CBS Sports’ model predicts they’ll cover: they don’t need to score 40 to win. They just need to force a turnover or two.
Contrasting Betting Trends
Here’s where things get messy. Winners and Whiners senior analyst sees Utah dominating possession, grinding out drives, and winning comfortably: “Utah 40, Kansas State 20 — they cover easily.” Their data shows Utah is 9-3 against the spread against sub-.500 conference teams and 4-1 ATS as double-digit favorites this season.
But Picks and Parlays isn’t convinced. They project a 33-25 Utah win — a win, yes, but not a cover. Their argument? Kansas State has averaged 30.2 points per game over their last five. That’s not fluky. That’s sustainable. And Utah, despite their firepower, has struggled in November games to keep opponents under 25 points.
Then there’s CBS Sports’ model — the outlier. It doesn’t just predict Kansas State will cover. It predicts they’ll win. Why? Because turnovers change games. And Kansas State has been the best in the nation at creating them. Five in one game. 24 total. That’s not luck. That’s coaching. That’s execution. If Johnson can avoid mistakes and Utah’s offense stalls in the red zone, this could be a nail-biter.
What’s at Stake?
This isn’t just about pride. Both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility and conference seeding. Utah, ranked No. 13, needs to win convincingly to stay in the Top 15 for New Year’s Six consideration. A loss — or worse, a cover failure — could drop them out of the conversation. Kansas State, at 7-4, needs a statement win to guarantee a bowl bid. A cover here? That’s a moral victory. A win? That’s program-altering.
And let’s not forget the venue. No one knows where it’s being played. That’s unusual. Usually, Utah hosts at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. But if this is a neutral-site game — maybe in Denver or Las Vegas — that adds another layer of uncertainty. No home-field advantage? That could help Kansas State. Or hurt them. Nobody’s sure.
The Final Word: Can They Cover?
The numbers say Utah should win by 18. But college football doesn’t follow spreads. It follows momentum, turnovers, and heart. Kansas State has played four close games this month. They’ve won them. Utah has won by 20+ in three of their last five. They’ve looked bored doing it.
Here’s the twist: Utah’s offense is so good, it doesn’t need to be perfect. One big play, one Kansas State fumble, and the game’s over. But if the Wildcats force two or three turnovers — and their defense has the ability to do that — they can turn this into a 28-24 game. And suddenly, 17.5 looks like a mountain.
So who wins? Utah. But will they cover? That’s the real question.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why has the point spread moved from -17 to -17.5 in favor of Utah?
The line shifted due to heavy betting on Utah, driven by their offensive explosiveness — averaging 43.2 points over their last five games — and Kansas State’s poor road performance (3-8 ATS in last 11 away games). Bookmakers adjusted to balance action, tightening the total from 52.5 to 51.5 as bettors anticipated a high-scoring but one-sided game.
Is Kansas State’s defense really good enough to cover a 17.5-point spread?
Yes, potentially. Kansas State has 24 takeaways this season — the most in the FBS — and forced five in their last game alone. Their ability to create turnovers and limit big plays makes them dangerous against high-powered offenses. If they force three or more miscues, they can turn a 30-point deficit into a 10-point loss — enough to cover.
What’s the historical context for teams covering such large spreads?
Since 2020, top-15 teams favored by 17+ points have covered just 58% of the time. Even elite offenses like Alabama and Georgia have failed to cover double-digit spreads against gritty, turnover-happy defenses. Utah’s 4-1 ATS record as a 10+ point favorite this season helps, but past performance doesn’t guarantee future results — especially against a team with Kansas State’s defensive identity.
How do Utah’s and Kansas State’s offensive styles compare?
Utah relies on a dual-threat QB (Devon Dampier) and a powerful running game led by Wayshawn Parker (736 yards), creating a balanced, clock-eating attack. Kansas State uses Avery Johnson’s dual-threat ability and Jayce Brown’s deep receiving to stretch defenses vertically. Utah’s offense is more consistent; Kansas State’s is explosive but riskier — which makes them more vulnerable to turnovers.
Could weather or venue affect the outcome?
The venue remains undisclosed, but November games in the Midwest often bring cold, windy conditions — which favor defenses and low-scoring games. If this is played in Manhattan, Kansas, the wind could disrupt Utah’s passing game and amplify Kansas State’s ball-control strategy. That’s a major factor in why analysts are split.
What happens if Utah fails to cover the spread?
It would be a major upset in betting circles and could cost Utah seeding in the Big 12 Championship. For Kansas State, a cover — even a loss — would elevate their national profile, boost recruiting, and make them a dark horse in bowl selection. It would also validate their defensive identity and prove they belong among the nation’s top-tier underdogs.